Trading the US jobs report (NFP): a 2026 guide

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) usually publishes its monthly jobs report on the first Friday of the month at 08:30 New York time. The headline figure is non-farm payrolls, known as NFP. Several of the 2026 dates are not first Fridays, and the time in UTC changes with US daylight saving time. Both are set out below.

What non-farm payrolls measures

Non-farm payrolls is the headline number in the BLS Employment Situation report. It is the estimated net change in the number of paid employees in the US in the previous month, from a survey of businesses and government agencies. It leaves out farm workers, people employed by private households and the self-employed.

The same report contains three other figures that traders watch almost as closely:

• the unemployment rate, from a separate survey of households;
• average hourly earnings, which the Fed watches as a measure of wage inflation;
• the labour force participation rate, the share of working-age people who are working or looking for work.

Markets read the headline together with these figures and with revisions. Each report revises the payroll figures for the two previous months. Large downward revisions often move markets more than the headline. A strong headline with a rise in unemployment, or with weak revisions, can be read as a weak report overall.

2026 release dates

All releases are at 08:30 New York time. In UTC that is 13:30 while the US is on standard time and 12:30 during US daylight saving time, which in 2026 runs from 8 March to 1 November.

Source: BLS release schedule and archive, checked on 27 October 2026. BLS can move a date, so check its schedule or our economic calendar before each release.

Why NFP moves forex, gold and indices

Markets trade the jobs report for what it says about the Fed's next interest-rate decision. The chain runs from the report to expectations for Fed rates, then to US Treasury yields, then to the dollar, gold and US stock indices, usually within minutes.

A stronger report than forecast usually lifts the dollar and pushes gold lower, because it makes higher US rates more likely. Stock indices can fall if investors expect rates to stay higher for longer.

A weaker report than forecast usually weakens the dollar and lifts gold, because rate cuts become more likely. Stock indices often rise on that, though a very weak report can raise fears of a recession and push stocks down as well.

Fed meetings in 2026

The report matters most when it lands shortly before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, because it is one of the last pieces of data the Fed sees before it decides. The 2026 meetings are:

27 to 28 January, 17 to 18 March, 28 to 29 April, 16 to 17 June, 28 to 29 July, 15 to 16 September, 27 to 28 October and 8 to 9 December (source: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar).

How the main markets usually react

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair, and the most common choice for trading the release. A stronger US report usually pushes it lower and a weaker one lifts it. The guide What moves EUR/USD explains the other drivers of the pair.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY reacts through US Treasury yields. A strong report tends to raise yields, which tends to lift USD/JPY. A weak report tends to do the opposite. The pair is particularly sensitive to average hourly earnings, because wage growth feeds into inflation and yields.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD usually moves in the same direction as EUR/USD on a dollar move. It often moves further in pips, with more noise from UK news and flows.

XAU/USD (gold)

Gold usually moves the opposite way to the dollar on the release. A weak report tends to lower real yields and lift gold. A strong report tends to raise them and push gold down. The reaction tends to be larger when markets are unsure whether the Fed will cut rates. The guide What moves the gold price covers gold's other drivers.

US stock indices

Index reactions depend on what the market is worried about. When the worry is inflation, a strong report can push indices down because rate cuts look less likely. When the worry is recession, a strong report can push them up. The Nasdaq-100 is weighted towards technology shares, which are more sensitive to interest rates, so it often moves further in percentage terms than the S&P 500.

Five common ways traders approach the release

Each of these has a cost and a way to lose money, and none of them works every month.

1. Breakout after the first move

The trader marks the high and low of the price range just before the release. After the release, they wait for the price to break clearly out of that range, then trade in the direction of the break, with a stop on the other side of the range. Waiting a few minutes means the trader misses the first part of the move, but trades at tighter spreads than in the first seconds.

2. The straddle

The trader places a buy-stop order above the current price and a sell-stop order below it shortly before the release. When the price moves, one order fills and the trader cancels the other. On MT5, cancelling is manual unless you use an Expert Advisor to do it.

This is the approach most exposed to slippage. A stop order on MT5 becomes a market order when the price reaches it, so it fills at the next available price. In the first seconds after the release that can be well away from the order's price. The price can also jump in one direction, fill one order and then reverse through the other.

3. Fading the first move

The trader waits 5 to 15 minutes. If the first move has gone through an obvious level, such as a recent high or low or a round number, and starts to reverse, the trader trades against the first move. The idea is that the first move sometimes goes too far and partly reverses. When it does not reverse, the trader is trading against a strong move.

4. Waiting for spreads to settle

The trader stays out for the first 30 to 60 minutes. Once spreads are back to normal and the direction is clearer, they trade with their usual position size and stop. They miss the first move, but trade at normal spreads.

5. Building a position in parts

A trader who has a view on the dollar before the release may build the position in parts rather than all at once, adding only if the report supports the view. The part opened before the release is exposed to the whole move and to the spread widening, so it is usually the smallest part.

Costs and risks around the release

Spreads widen

Spreads on most instruments widen sharply for a short time around the release, as liquidity providers quote wider prices or stop quoting. This happens across the market. On our ECN account, spreads start at 0.0 pips and widen around major news, including NFP. You also pay $5 per standard lot, round turn. A trade opened in the first minute pays the wider spread as well as the commission.

Orders can fill away from their price

Stop orders and stop-losses become market orders when they trigger, so in a fast market they can fill well beyond their price. A limit order fills only at its price or better, so it may not fill at all.

Here is an example. A trader risks 20 pips on one standard lot of EUR/USD, where a pip is worth $10, so the planned loss is $200. If the stop fills 15 pips beyond its price, the loss is $350. Wider spreads at the same moment make it larger again.

On MT5, whether you can set a maximum deviation for an order depends on the symbol's execution mode, which is shown in its specification. On symbols that use market execution, the order fills at the available price and no deviation limit applies.

Sharp moves through obvious levels

In the first minute the price often moves sharply one way and then reverses. Prices often run through obvious levels, such as round numbers, where many stops sit. Tight stops at those levels are often hit in the first minute.

A checklist for release day

• Consider a smaller position than usual. Wider spreads and slippage make each trade cost more, and the move can be larger.
• Avoid market orders in the first seconds after the release. Use limit orders, or wait.
• Decide your view, your entry and your stop before the release.
• Set a loss limit for the day and stop trading when you reach it.

Common mistakes

1. Trading the headline instead of the surprise. A gain of 250,000 jobs can weaken the dollar if the forecast was 300,000. What matters is the gap between the figure and the forecast.
2. Ignoring revisions. A good headline with large downward revisions to the two previous months can be read as a weak report.
3. Opening a full-size position before the release. It is exposed to the whole move and to the spread widening.
4. Using normal stops. A stop that suits a quiet morning can sit inside the spread during the release. Size the stop, and so the position, for the move you expect on the day.
5. Trying to win back the first loss. Doubling the size after a losing trade usually adds to the loss.
6. Trading less liquid pairs. Spreads on minor and exotic pairs widen more than on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold or the main US indices.

Trading the release with NAMH Global

You can trade EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, gold (XAU/USD) and US indices as CFDs on MetaTrader 5. You can practise your release-day routine on a demo account first, though a demo cannot show the slippage you may get on a real order. The ECN account page sets out its spreads and commission.

CFDs use leverage. You can lose money quickly, and you can lose all of the money you deposit. Only trade with money you can afford to lose.

Jobs report questions

When is the jobs report released?

Usually on the first Friday of the month at 08:30 New York time, though several 2026 dates fall on other days. The full 2026 list is in the table above, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes later dates on its release schedule at bls.gov.

What time is NFP in UTC?

13:30 UTC while the US is on standard time and 12:30 UTC while it is on daylight saving time. In 2026 US daylight saving time runs from 8 March to 1 November, so the April to October releases are at 12:30 UTC.

How does NFP affect gold (XAUUSD)?

Gold usually moves the opposite way to the dollar. A weak report tends to lower expected US interest rates and real yields, which tends to lift gold. A strong report tends to do the reverse.

Which markets move most on NFP?

The US dollar pairs, gold and US stock indices react most directly, because the report changes expectations for US interest rates. EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD are the most widely traded dollar pairs. Less traded pairs usually see wider spreads.

Should I hold a position through the release?

Only if you have sized it for a much larger move than usual. A full-size position with a normal stop can lose far more than planned, because the price can jump past the stop and spreads widen at the same time.

Why do spreads widen during NFP?

Because liquidity providers quote wider prices, or stop quoting for a short time, when they expect a large move. Spreads on our ECN account widen around the release too.

NAMH Global Ltd is a company registered in Saint Lucia (No. 2024-00372). It is not licensed by a securities regulator. This article is general information, not investment advice or a recommendation.